Trading Expectancy Calculator
Free trading expectancy calculator: combine win rate with average win and average loss to find your expectancy per trade — the only number that actually compounds.
Expectancy is what one average trade is worth — and the only number that compounds. Combine your win rate with the size of your wins and losses to find it.
QuantDojo · Free tool
Trading Expectancy Calculator
What one average trade is really worth — combining win rate with the size of your wins and losses.
How it works: expectancy = win% × avg win − loss% × avg loss. A positive number is what you earn, on average, every time you take the trade — the only figure that compounds.
Educational tool — not financial advice. Uses average win and loss; a few outsized trades can dominate the real average, so use a large, honest sample.
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How to use the expectancy calculator
Enter your win rate, average win and average loss. The calculator returns your expectancy per trade — what one average trade is worth — plus the same figure expressed per unit risked (R).
Expectancy is the number that actually compounds. A strategy with a modest win rate but large winners can have far better expectancy than a high-win-rate system that bleeds on its losers.
Frequently asked questions
What is trading expectancy?
The average profit or loss per trade: expectancy = win% × average win − loss% × average loss. Positive means the system makes money over many trades; negative means it loses, no matter how good it feels.
Is a high win rate enough on its own?
No. A 90% win rate with tiny wins and huge losses has negative expectancy. Win rate only matters alongside the average size of your wins and losses.
How many trades do I need to trust the number?
Enough that a few outliers cannot dominate the average — dozens at a minimum, and the more the better. Small samples make expectancy look more stable than it really is.
Expectancy from a backtest is only as honest as the backtest. Check whether yours survives proper validation with quantcheck.